Credit insurer Coface issued a press release which assesses the likely impact of the China slowdown on its neighbors. Is a Chinese shadow cast over Asia? China is trying to find a way to achieve healthier, more sustainable growth, but this is not completely painless for its economy – or for those of its neighbors.
According to Coface estimates, growth is unlikely to exceed 6.7% in 2015 and 6.2% in 2016, compared with 13.4% over the period 2006-2007. This is mainly a result of the technological and capital catch-up process running out of steam: several industries are suffering from overcapacity and corporate indebtedness is high, thus impacting investment. We are witnessing a shift in the Chinese economic model. Which Asian countries will be the first victims if there is a hard landing? And which will enjoy the greatest immunity.
To download the press release please click on this link: RP Asia contagion 22092015 (E)