Drawing on its experience with corporate payments in its countries of presence, Coface underlines the differences between the current situation and the crisis in 2001 where payment defaults jumped 30% just before the bubble burst while world growth was under 2% at the time.  In 2007 and 2008 households, rather than companies, are the victims of over indebtedness.  Companies are not central to the crisis.  But an economic shock and more difficult access to financing could nonetheless affect them.

Even with much slower world growth emerging countries should moreover hold up well. They are much stronger today with their growth increasingly driven by domestic demand and with their financial situations generally healthy. Their contribution to world GDP is much larger today increasing from 24% in 2001 to 34% in 2008. The United States, in sharp contrast, saw its contribution decline from 32% of world GDP in 2001 to just 26% today.   Source: Coface Press Release

BIIA Newsletter March 2008 Issue
Comment:  In hindsight one can say that often forecasts become obsolete when overtaken by subsequent events such as the Lehman bankruptcy.   As it turned out the Credit Crunch turned became much more severe than anybody had predicted (December 2010).