Data Scientists Use AI to Get Ahead of the Covid-19 Curve

Experian DataLabs working with Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust to prepare for potential future outbreaks. Data scientists are helping the NHS plan for future waves of Covid-19 cases by modelling the disease characteristics with daily updated public information.

DataLabs, the research unit for Experian, uses advanced technology and more than 10 public and proprietary data sources to simulate when and where the next wave of the virus is likely to have an impact on hospital resources.

The epidemiological simulator and forecaster notes death rates and trends from 13 countries plus the UK and blends with other data including population statistics, UK death rates in 120 NHS Trusts and social distancing policies. The modelled data delivers results focused on a region or an NHS Trust.

As situations such as social distancing measures change over time, the model’s “what if simulator” can forecast the impact in specific areas and for any kind of future measure-lifting scenario that can be produced.

Experian, the world’s largest leading global information services company, partnered with Nottingham University Hospitals (NUH) NHS Trust to develop the programme. More NHS Trusts are expected to start using the technology to assess the demand in ICU beds and the need for extra resources including PPE.

Keith Girling, Medical Director at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust said: “We need the ability to plan and forecast to deliver the best care we can. Working collaboratively with Experian and the local Integrated Care System (ICS) to look at how we can use data to prepare has been an immensely valuable and appreciated programme of work. We have to learn to live with Covid-19 and we need all of the help access to intelligence like this so that we can respond to and tackle the virus.”

Amanda Sullivan, Accountable Officer for NHS Nottingham and Nottinghamshire Clinical Commissioning Group, said: “Experian DataLabs have provided invaluable support to the Nottingham and Nottinghamshire system during the Covid-19 pandemic enabling us to forward plan and ensuring we can put the right resources in place to provide the best care for our local population.”

Javier Campos Zabala, General Manager of Experian DataLabs UK&I, said: “This crisis has shown how data science can be used as a force for good, helping inform decision makers charged with navigating the immediate crisis. This new model delivers the much-needed data to allow hospitals to forecast and plan for future outbreaks of Covid-19.

“Partnering with NUH has delivered this valuable tool and other NHS Trusts across the country are now keen to use it to ensure they can deliver the best care to their patients.”