D&B has published its Global Economic Outlook to 2017 offering global and regional insights, upgrades and downgrades.
In terms of Global Risk Insights D&B has downgraded its 2013 global growth forecast due to uncertainty around the windup of quantitative easing, growing political risks, amplified risks on OECD debt levels, and structural rebalancing in emerging markets. Headwinds remain in the form of the termination of monetary easing, fiscal rebalancing in the US, and Chinese rebalancing.
In terms of Asia / Pacific D&B offers the following risk insights: China’s opaque financial system, industrial overcapacity, and property market bubble threaten a stable real-GDP growth path surpassing 6 percent a year between 2014 and 2017. The region’s domestic demand drivers have survived Chinese deceleration and Eurozone stresses, but a post-QE global environment could rock credit and asset markets. Deteriorating: China, India, Singapore. Stable: Japan, New Zealand, Philippines
In regard to Asia / Pacific D&B has the following recommendation: “Watch your customer base and supply chains for signs of change in market sentiment—as “crash” phases unwind faster than “bubble” phases grew—once market agents realign.”
Source: D&B Press Release
