The Philippines will be among the last across Asia-Pacific to restore its vibrant pre-pandemic economy, with Moody’s Analytics seeing a full recovery only by late 2022.
In a report published Thursday, the research unit of credit rater Moody’s Investors Service said that while the region is leading the growth rebound globally, nations are on different stages of recovery. China’s economy has reached its “new peak” when it managed to break out of recession in the second quarter, while Taiwan and Vietnam –– which have controlled the local outbreaks in a few months –– are also slated to restore growth before 2020 ends.
“On the other end of the spectrum, Japan, the Philippines and India will not surmount new peaks until the second half of 2022,” said Steve Cochrane, Asia-Pacific chief economist of Moody’s Analytics. “India and the Philippines were the two hardest hit by the economic impacts of the pandemic and have the deepest holes to climb out of,” he added.
In 2022, the Philippines will hold presidential and local elections, which typically see a spike in economic activity amid national campaigns.
The two countries continue to report new cases by the thousands daily, although lower than the trend from previous surges earlier this year. Meanwhile, neighboring states have managed to control the spread of infections and flattened their case curves.
The entire Luzon and select provinces were placed under enhanced community quarantine from Mid-March and the first two weeks of May, until restrictions were gradually eased to allow more businesses to reopen.
Hong Kong is expected to revive its gross domestic product by the first three months of 2021, followed by South Korea and Indonesia in the second quarter. The Moody’s unit said Thailand will be back on track by the last quarter of 2021, followed by Singapore, New Zealand, and Malaysia in the first half of 2022.
“There is a lot to be optimistic about regarding the Asia-Pacific economy. It has done the best job of containing COVID-19 and it is rebounding with the global recovery of industrial production and global trade,” Cochrane added.
Source: CNN Philippines news