The turnover of companies is growing, but the crisis is starting to be felt
The economic recovery recorded in 2021 allowed for an important recovery in the turnover and margins of companies Italian, albeit with big differences between the different sectors. The inflationary dynamics will continue to push sales upwards also in 2022, expected to stand at + 9% both compared to 2021 and to the pre-crisis figure of 2019. However, the current context characterized by multiple tensions and factors of uncertainty entails a clear downward revision of the 2022 outlook in terms of operating margins, expected to be slightly decrease both compared to 2021 (-40 bps) and compared to 2019 (-50 bps), before the spread of the pandemic came to affect the global economy so heavily. This is what the Observatory notes CRIF Pulse.
“In terms of financial impact, the balance between sources and uses of Italian companies remains delicate. The pressure on operating margins and the need for working capital will be difficult to offset in the short term in terms of cash generation capacity. However, the companies that have made adequate financial funding in the two-year period 2020-2021, also thanks to the instruments put in place by the Italian government to contain the crisis caused by the pandemic, have a vital liquidity lung “- he explains Simone Mirani, General Manager of CRIF Ratings.
“It should be borne in mind, however, that the disappearance of the moratoriums and the consequent resumption of the repayment plans of the financial debt, together with the impact of the surge in the costs of energy and some raw materials, could accentuate the tensions on the front of the liquidity, especially in the high-intensity working capital and energy-intensive sectors. The progressive increase in interest rates in the current context may also contribute, especially for companies with high levels of debt, to further increase the credit risk in the medium term and the consequent
default rate in the two-year period 2023-2024”.