In late 2007 BIIA wrote:  “The growth party is over!”  

As the credit crunch entered its third year, analysts and shareholders were waiting with baited breath whether the downward slide continued.  According to the latest Q3 results it has!

As to the future outlook: CEOs remain cautious.  Don Robert of Experian said: “in North America the recovery will be slow” and “while the situation is complex, we are encouraged by stability in some markets”

D&B’s Steve Alesio stated:  “It does appear that the US has found its bottom from what we are all reading, and so that’s the good side of an outlook.  But what we cannot see or estimate yet is the slope of an economic recovery. Again from what we all read, it’s not clear yet whether growth in 2010 will be anemic or better than that.”

Claw back from the abyss!

There has been a steady improvement in shareholder value since the lows of last autumn and early spring.  Info Group (InfoUSA) had the best run up, however this may be largely due to the fact that the company is in play. 

Experian’s share price made a steady comeback.  Its gains have been significant.  Investors seem to put their faith on a faster comeback in growth once the financial crisis has come to an end.  Apart from being buffeted by negative growth rates as a result of exchange rate fluctuations, its organic growth seems to be holding up. 

Of course some analysts appear to have a problem with the lack of improvement. One analyst asked recently in a conference call:  “The macro environment is better today than three months ago and certainly six months ago.  Can you just walk through a little bit more as to when you sense things were weakening?”   Perhaps he was not around during the last big recession, nor did he read the IMF report stating that credit conditions had not improved for two years following past recessions.

BIIA Newsletter November 2009 – Issue