As a follow up to a recent Webinar, Experian issued a brand-new report delivering in-depth analysis on COVID-19 economic scenarios as of April 2020 and what they mean for potential trajectories of the US economy.

The report, featuring key insights from Mohammed Chaudhri, Experian Chief Economist, provides a deep dive on:

  • Key economic outcomes of a V-, U-, and W-shaped recovery
  • Key sectors at risk during the global pandemic
  • Government policy measures

At the time of writing this report, Experian’s view is that the V-shape cases are, on-balance, the more likely trajectories based on the scale of response from the U.S. and other governments.

Experian will continue to monitor developments and update this outlook accordingly.  In late-March, or early-April the majority of states issued restriction orders that hold at least until the end of the month. More recently, the U.S. government issued guidelines for a gradual  re-opening of the economy, but compliance by state governors is not guaranteed.

The uncoordinated nature of actions thus far adds to the risk that the virus may take longer to contain, leading to worse economic outcomes. The U.S. government and the Federal Reserve (Fed) have announced extensive measures to mitigate the impact on households and businesses and, at the time of writing, it appears that further policies may follow. As well as, providing support to business and household finances, credit conditions have been relaxed and ample liquidity provided to the financial markets.

To download this report, click on this link: