The credit-to-GDP ratio in Brazil ended 2024 at 54.4%, reflecting the growing importance of credit in the economy. But is this percentage sufficient? To understand, we need to look at the last 20 years and the contribution of credit bureaus to this growth.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil

In 2005, this ratio was just 28%. Since then, it has almost doubled, making it easier for consumers and businesses to access loans. Credit bureaus have played a key role in this growth, improving scoring models, reducing information asymmetries and increasing transparency.

Three major phases marked this evolution:

1* 2005-2015 : Accelerated credit expansion, driven by innovations such as payroll loans and regulatory changes. Credit bureaus expanded their databases, making risk analysis more accurate.

2* 2016-2018 : Recession and credit restrictions. Credit bureaus helped to differentiate risk profiles, allowing credit to be granted more safely.

3* 2019-2024 : Recovery driven by new programs and the use of the Positive Registry. Artificial intelligence and big data have become differentiators in credit analysis models.

Source: Central Bank of Brazil

Changes in the credit profile Credit to Individuals (PF) has surpassed that to Legal Entities (PJ). In 2007, individuals represented 14% of GDP credit, while legal entities represented 16.6%. In 2024, individuals reached 33.4%, while legal entities stood at 21%. This transformation was made possible by advances in technology in credit bureaus.

Global comparison Despite the growth, there is still room for more. While the credit-to-GDP ratio in Brazil is 71.6% according to the World Bank, the global average is 146.5%. In the US, it is 192% and in Chile, 109.5%.

The future of credit New regulations, such as the guarantee framework and the over-indebtedness law, will continue to shape the market. With the increasing use of alternative data on creditor behavior and predictive models, credit bureaus will continue to drive efficiency and access to credit in Brazil. Another major challenge being addressed by credit bureaus is combating fraud to increase the security of operations.

 

Source: www.anbc.org.br