Against the backdrop of global economic instability, the number of insolvencies worldwide recorded a 19% increase in 2024 compared to the previous year, according to the latest Atradius report “Insolvencies normalise, but trade war brings new risks“, published in April 2025. The analysis, covering 29 global markets, highlights a trend toward a return to pre-pandemic levels, albeit with additional risks stemming from the ongoing trade conflict. Romania is no exception: with an insolvency index of 111 compared to 2019, the country remains in line with trends observed in most European nations, yet the figures point to a growing fragility in the business environment.
“This increase in insolvencies in Romania is a clear sign that the business environment is under significant pressure, driven by inflation, financing costs, and external uncertainties. We are at a critical juncture where companies must strengthen their risk management mechanisms for the period ahead—especially since the forecast for 2025 shows the corporate insolvency index rising to 113. For Romania, 2025 will be a test of economic resilience, as the insolvencies recorded in 2024 are not merely a delayed effect of the pandemic, but also the result of economic normalization in a risk-laden environment—now further amplified by geopolitical uncertainties, unpredictable trade tariffs, and high financing costs,” notes Alexandra Mehedințu, Country Manager Româniala Atradius Crédito y Caución S.A. de Seguros y Reaseguros.
The report indicates that European countries are facing a significant wave of corporate insolvencies, driven by economic instability caused by high input prices, elevated interest rates, and the final phase of phasing out government support measures introduced during the Covid pandemic. Added to these pressures is the shockwave triggered by the new tariffs imposed by the U.S. Administration at the beginning of this month. As a result, while last year’s global forecast anticipated a stagnation in insolvencies for 2025, Atradius experts now estimate that a full-scale escalation of the trade war would lead to a continued increase in the number of insolvencies. There is a significant downside risk to the baseline scenario, generated by a full-blown trade war that could lead to even higher tariffs, higher inflation, and delayed monetary easing. In this adverse scenario, insolvencies could continue to rise by 6% in 2025 and a further 5% in 2026.
Source: business-review.eu
