In the context of Vietnam’s goal of achieving high and sustainable growth in the coming period, the challenge lies not only in the scale of credit or the total amount of capital injected into the economy, but also in how capital is mobilized, allocated, and used to generate genuine growth.
At the Vietnam Access Days 2026 event organized by Vietcap Securities on February 4, 2026 in Ho Chi Minh City, Mr. Nguyen Quang Thuan – Chairman of FiinGroup and FiinRatings – shared his insights on the topic “Driving the Next Credit Cycle: Funding Solutions for Sustainable Credit Growth in Vietnam”. Some key highlights from his presentation include:
- GDP growth in 2025 will be primarily driven by investment (public investment and FDI) and exports from the FDI sector, while private sector investment and domestic consumption will remain weak. To achieve the 10% growth target from 2026, we expect (i) improved domestic business investment flows; and (ii) a recovery in domestic consumer demand.”
- This context will contribute to shaping a new credit cycle for Vietnam in the 2026-2030 period. The current government focus will be on promoting public investment and creating favorable conditions for further development of private sector investment. This will be an important prerequisite for both opportunities and risks for a new credit cycle in Vietnam over the next five years.
- According to FiinGroup’s estimates, Vietnam needs to mobilize between US$172 billion and US$263 billion in medium and long-term investment capital annually during the period 2026-2030. Compared with existing capital sources, the medium and long-term capital gap in the economy could range from US$20-30 billion per year. Existing medium and long-term capital sources include: public investment capital, medium and long-term financing from banks, FDI and M&A capital, equity capital raised on the stock market, capital raised through the corporate bond market, and international debt.
- Public investment: Approximately VND 1.12 trillion (USD 41.2 billion) is projected to be disbursed in 2026. There is ample room for fiscal policy adjustments thanks to effective public debt control over the past several years. However, this should only be considered as “seed capital” to stimulate large-scale PPP projects and private investment flows in the long term.
- Bank credit: Total outstanding credit in the entire system is approximately VND 18.4 million billion (USD 702 billion), and Vietnam’s credit-to-GDP ratio is currently high (around 146%) by the end of 2025. The ratio of short-term capital used for medium- and long-term loans across all banks is approximately 28.32% at the end of November 2024 (almost reaching the 30% ceiling set by the State Bank of Vietnam), the CAR of the Big 4 banks is < 11% by mid-2025, and there is pressure to implement Basel III (roadmap to 2030). These indicators suggest that the Vietnamese commercial banking system will not be able to meet the long-term capital needs for investment in general, including large infrastructure projects in Vietnam.
- Corporate bonds: The value of new issuances in 2025 is expected to reach approximately VND 644 trillion (USD 23.9 billion), of which non-bank corporate bonds are still relatively small: only VND 207 trillion (USD 7.9 billion), accounting for 32%. The corporate bond issuance channel will develop strongly from 2026 onwards thanks to current policy improvements, especially regarding more flexible capital use purposes, improved information transparency, mandatory credit rating, etc., and due to the upward trend in bank lending interest rates.
- International borrowing: Corporate foreign debt: Approximately VND 2.2 trillion (USD 85.7 billion) by the end of 2025. While Vietnam’s public debt still has room for further increase, the key is the efficient use of capital. The prospects for mobilizing this capital channel will improve as global interest rates fall and largely depend on: Upgrading the national credit rating (currently at BB+) and policy mechanisms aimed at improving the “bankability” of projects, especially infrastructure projects.
- Equity fundraising on the stock market: Capital raised (in cash) through the stock channel in 2025: VND 150.5 trillion (~USD 5.7 billion) – a record level in nearly 30 years of the Vietnamese stock market history. Driving forces for 2026 and subsequent years: Potential IPOs, FDI companies listing, continued upgrades according to MSCI, and realization of the results from the stock market upgrade to attract indirect investment capital.
Mr. Thuan emphasized, “The ability to effectively mobilize and allocate long-term investment capital will be a key factor in realizing these high growth targets, alongside other important drivers such as improving labor productivity, developing human resources, and promoting innovation in line with the Government’s current direction.”
Leveraging FiinGroup’s data capabilities and FiinRatings’ credit rating expertise, an analytical ecosystem is built to provide an independent, standardized, and in-depth perspective on the capital market. This approach contributes to supporting the market in improving valuation discipline, enhancing the quality of capital allocation, and promoting the in-depth development of Vietnam’s capital market.
👉 Download the full presentation here: HERE
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Source: fiingroup.vn
