At the FChoice 2025 awards ceremony organized by CafeF, Mr. Nguyen Quang Thuan – Chairman of FiinGroup and FiinRatings – participated in a discussion on the topic “Economic Prospects 2026 and Capital Mobilization Channels for Growth”. The presentation focused on analyzing Vietnam’s economic growth in 2025, as well as the prospects of long-term capital mobilization channels, including the stock market and domestic and international debt (especially corporate bonds), in supporting the goal of double-digit economic growth from 2026 onwards.
According to Mr. Thuan, in addition to the two main capital channels—public investment disbursement and long-term bank credit—businesses should proactively explore fundraising channels through the capital market to meet the increasing investment needs of the private sector.
Some key highlights:
- GDP growth of 8.02% in 2025 is mainly driven by sectors directly benefiting from public investment , with a 26.6% increase, and the FDI sector with an 11.7% increase in disbursements. Conversely, private investment only increased by 8.4%, while domestic consumption recovered slowly, reaching 6.7% after adjusting for price factors.
- The FDI sector is projected to record export growth of up to 26.9% in 2025 , in contrast to a 7.5% decline in the domestic business sector. The trade surplus is expected to reach approximately $20 billion, down from $24.9 billion in 2024.
- To drive high double-digit growth from 2026 onwards, a decisive factor will be a stronger recovery of private sector investment. While supportive policies and reforms are being implemented vigorously, it is crucial that these results are translated into concrete investment and production activities that contribute to economic growth.
- The banking system’s capacity for long-term funding is increasingly limited. Bank credit is projected to increase by 19.9% in 2025, bringing the credit-to-GDP ratio to 146% by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, the industry-wide capital adequacy ratio has fallen below 12%, and the structure of deposit-based funding is not conducive to providing long-term credit. In this context, the capital market needs to be more clearly repositioned as the main pillar of long-term funding for economic growth to ensure high but sustainable growth.
- Specifically for the corporate bond market, the value of issuances in 2025 is projected to increase by 35.5%, reaching VND 644.3 trillion . However, the value of issuances by non-banking enterprises is less than VND 200 trillion. With new policies aimed at improving the quality of bond products, coupled with a trend of rising domestic interest rates and a policy of limiting monetary easing, the corporate bond market is expected to experience stronger growth in 2026.
- The stock market fundraising channel continues to make significant progress, with capital raised (attracted through cash) reaching a record high of VND 141 trillion in 2025. Combined with the prospect of upgrading the market to Emerging Market status, the long-term fundraising channel through the stock market, including IPOs and new listings, is projected to continue its breakthrough in 2026 and the following years.
Concluding his presentation, Mr. Nguyen Quang Thuan emphasized that the key to growth lies not only in the ability to mobilize capital, but also in the capacity of businesses to absorb it. The ability to implement projects, financial management capabilities, transparency, and bankability will determine whether capital flows can be transformed into sustainable growth.
With the vision of becoming a leading provider of data technology and analytics in the region, FiinGroup is ready to partner with market participants in improving information quality, supporting decision-making, and contributing to the development of a more transparent and efficient capital market. From data to intelligence, from in-depth analysis to action, FiinGroup is a reliable partner, supporting the market in making informed decisions.
👉 Download the full presentation here: HERE
Source: fiingroup.vn
