Worldbox Business Intelligence Risk Rating – March 2025
MYANMAR
Summary
NEW – Technology is an increasingly important driver of economic success, and we are now including a separate Technology sector in our quarterly country risk reports and integrating the core into our overall score.
| Overall Risk Score 12/40 (Negative)
Political risk: Negative 3/10 Economic risk: Negative 3/10 Commercial risk: Negative 3/10 Technology risk: Negative 3/10 The risk assessment of a country is made up of four components, being Political, Economic, Commercial and Technological. Each component is scored out of 10 with 1 being the highest risk and 10 the lowest. |
ESG Risk: 3/10 (Negative)*
*Environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues are becoming increasingly important to companies, investors and consumers in Southeast Asia. That is why we are now preparing a separate ESG score and section with our quarterly country risk reports. We explain how each country rates, looking at the E, S and G individually, and outline recent developments. |
Political Risk – Negative at 3
The rebellion against the military, which has been in power since 1962, intensified significantly in 2023. Momentum continued to move towards the rebels in 2024. By the end of the year, Myanmar’s junta forces reportedly controlled less than half the country after suffering major battlefield setbacks – including the loss of command headquarters in Shan and Rakhine states.
Even where the military is nominally in control, including the major cities of Yangon, Mandalay and the capital, Naypyidaw, security is far from stable and the army is vulnerable to rebel attacks.
Myanmar’s civil war is the longest-running armed conflict in the world, as ethnic groups battle for autonomy. No government has been fully in control of the country, formerly known as Burma, since independence in 1948.
Officially, there are more than 135 ethnic groups in this country of more than 55 million people. That has led to numerous civil conflicts. However, the majority Bamar (also known as Burman) ethnic group dominates both the military and major parties, such as the National League for Democracy (NLD).
The rebel insurgency, along with a campaign of civil disobedience, escalated significantly following the 1 February 2021 military coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government. Following the coup, lawmakers formed a government in exile, the National Unity Government (NUG). This established the People’s Defence Force (PDF) of civilians, which has fought alongside established ethnic armed groups.
China could prove key to any peace talks. ASEAN has been marginalized, while China’s veto has protected the government from any action by the United Nations. Although the NUG holds the country’s seat at the United Nations, it has struggled to win international recognition – the EU recognizes the NUG, but Japan and the United States do not.
China had good relations with Aung San Suu Kyi’s government and craves stability in the country, having invested heavily in infrastructure and other projects. It has expanded high-level engagement with the military regime on issues of concern. But it has refrained from normalizing relations or recognizing regime leader Min Aung Hlaing as head of state. China continues to prefer that the regime enter dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi on a path back to constitutional rule, however unlikely that may be.
China has also been alarmed by the level of lawlessness in areas of Myanmar bordering China, and particularly by the military government’s tolerance of scam centres targeting Chinese citizens.
China’s leverage over the military is increasing as the junta’s position weakens and it becomes ever more dependent on Chinese support. China may be manoeuvring to replace the current leaders, Min Aung Hlaing and Soe Win, with more pragmatic military leaders who could explore a peaceful resolution to the war.
China is backing the junta’s election roadmap, which calls for elections in November 2025 as a means of ending the conflict. However, it is hard to see this as a viable route to peace. Unsurprisingly, the opposition refuses to participate, since free and fair elections are impossible due to widespread conflict and repression.
Economic Risk – Negative at 3
Given the civil war raging in the country, it’s very difficult to gain an accurate picture of what is happening to the economy. The junta hasn’t published monthly economic data since mid-2022, and figures from the World Bank and other organizations are at best “guesstimates” of what is happening in the country. They could well be wildly inaccurate.
It is known that war is severely disrupting economic activity, which was already badly hit by the pandemic. The military takeover in February 2021 has caused foreign investment and tourist numbers to plummet, and exports have also been hit. Moreover, rolling blackouts are disrupting economic activity.
A December report in Fulcrum, the journal of the Singapore-based SEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, a leading research centre dedicated to the study of socio-political, security, and economic trends and developments in Southeast Asia, provided a fascinating insight into the economic changes underway since the 2021 military coup. It said the most significant post-coup economic development has been the State Administration Council’s (SAC, as the junta labels itself) shift away from allocation through market prices and towards allocation by regime fiat.
The report added that “numerous steps, such as the 2012 exchange rate harmonisation, increased the economy’s market orientation under the USDP and NLD governments. The SAC has undone many of these and now relies heavily on administrative controls to direct resource allocation.”
It also said that “the regime has tried to force businesses trading key commodities such as fuel, edible oil, and rice to sell at administratively-determined prices. However, selling at these prices is sometimes not feasible, especially for goods imported with dollars bought at the market rate. In some cases, the regime provides importers with forex at the administratively-controlled platform rate, allowing them to sell at administratively-determined prices. The regime sometimes cracks down on merchants selling at market prices.”
The regime has also “expanded controls over trade licensing. It now requires import licenses for 79% of the total number of HS classification lines, up notably from previous regimes. Most of these are available only through the ‘non-automatic channel’, meaning that each consignment needs manual approval, a clear entry point for corruption and control.”
The report concludes that “overall, individuals and businesses have suffered greatly, and the economy has performed poorly, albeit that some subsets of business have done well.” It adds that “in practice, few businesses like the regime, and almost all want a level of stability and predictability that the SAC is unlikely to be able to provide. Though business is sometimes portrayed as an ally of the military, in reality, many of them share common cause with Myanmar’s people and resistance.”
Commercial Risk – Negative at 3
Myanmar was rated as one of the most difficult countries in the Asia–Pacific region in which to do business even prior to the military coup and escalating civil war.
Since the coup, the banking system has been disrupted significantly. Sending money out of Myanmar is extremely difficult, with much stricter oversight by the central bank, harming international trade and commerce. Access to and use of the internet has also become more difficult, with internet shutdowns common, and the disruptive effect on business activity has been magnified by the coronavirus and the associated need for remote working. Privacy and data-security concerns have also increased. Entering, leaving and moving around the country are difficult, with staff safety concerns a major issue given the deteriorating security situation in many areas of the country.
Meanwhile, government decision-making and the administrative process are much slower and less predictable, affecting even routine matters such as tax administration and visa processing. Senior government personnel in many positions have changed, while new policies have been adopted, and the civil disobedience campaign has severely disrupted administrative processes.
The rule of law has suffered further setbacks. Even prior to the pandemic, businesses reported very low trust in the independence of the judiciary, with bribes and irregular payments in exchange for favourable judicial decisions very common.
Corruption – already a significant challenge – has worsened as living standards have plummeted. Myanmar ranks 162nd out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index, moving down five places over the course of the year. The Myanmar Corruption Report by GAN says that corruption is endemic in Myanmar, presenting companies with high risks. The weak rule of law and complex and opaque licensing systems are serious barriers to investment and trade.
A lack of adequate infrastructure also provides significant challenges to operating in Myanmar. Sanctions levied since the 1960s have caused Myanmar’s infrastructure to become outdated. Much of the country’s electrical grid relies on hydropower, and factory operation, for example, becomes unreliable during dry seasons. While there has been significant growth in the country’s paved road network, the vast majority of the network – around 60% – remains unpaved. Meanwhile, port capacity is limited and the railway service depends on ageing and unreliable equipment.
NEW
Technology Risk – Negative at 3
A report by the World Economic Forum, published in November 2024, found that the current education system focuses too much on rote learning, at the expense of critical thinking and creativity. It added that after five decades without investment in education, these challenges are numerous, and there is a desperate need to reform the system. However, the report argues that these challenges also present an opportunity because “the sheer scale of the education reforms and capacity building that need to take place mean that Myanmar can effectively start its education reforms from scratch, and avoid making the same mistakes as the Western education system”.
Government policies
Decades of military rule and civil war have hindered economic and technological progress in Myanmar. Even prior to the 2021 military coup, the army maintained a tight control on the internet. Following the coup, it imposed total internet blackouts, and adopted a series of legal manipulations and abuses to exert power over the internet. The army has also raised internet prices, erecting barriers to accessibility.
Rest of the World, a US-based non-profit publication, argues that Myanmar ties with China for the worst internet environment in the world. In addition to the problems detailed above, VPN bans have greatly affected small businesses and workers who rely on online platforms, as well as students, aid groups and journalists, said the publication, citing Wai Phyo Myint, Myanmar lead at the digital-rights non-profit Access Now.
Infrastructure
Freedom House reports that, as of January 2024, internet penetration in Myanmar was just 44%, the lowest rate in Southeast Asia after East Timor. Average mobile download speeds in Myanmar declined by nearly 10% during the 12-month period to 31 May 2024. It added that the fixed-line and wireless broadband penetration rate remained low at 6.7%, representing just 0.5% of all subscriptions in 2020.
Freedom House says that Myanmar’s telecommunications infrastructure has been damaged as a consequence of the armed conflict, while the expansion of infrastructure has similarly been curtailed by physical insecurity. More than 400 cell towers were destroyed in 2021 and an unknown number are not regularly serviced or refuelled due to physical risk, it adds.
Education and skilled staff
The 2021 military coup devastated Myanmar’s education system through widespread violence and school closures. Many teachers and students fled the country. Over 5 million children – more than half of Myanmar’s school-age population – dropped out of school, according to The Diplomat. Moreover, according to the United Nations, up to 90% of university students boycotted classes to protest the military regime.
Myanmar is also experiencing a severe brain drain, according to The Diplomat, which argues that this poses long-term challenges to the country’s potential for academic restoration, economic recovery and scientific development, as many of those leaving are among the country’s most talented and skilled individuals.
However, there is some hope. As the junta loses territorial control, the NUG and ethnic revolutionary organizations are establishing alternative schools that promote multilingual education and local autonomy, the Australian-based East Asia Forum reports.
Prior to the military coup, educational environments had undergone substantial changes, with the democratically elected government seeking to raise the standard of both basic and higher education. These efforts included the provision of additional opportunities for research funding, the expansion of access to international academic cooperation, and the provision of a wide range of choices for students and teachers. Critical thinking and freedom of speech were also encouraged.
March Bulletin
Political Risk – Negative at 3
A report by The Diplomat, published in December 2024, suggests that the main rebel groups believe victory over the military is now in sight and that they have begun to prepare for a post-conflict Myanmar. China is exerting pressure on the Arakan Army, the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army to enter into negotiations with the junta, and is almost certainly pressing the junta to talk.
Beijing is believed to be concerned that its interests in Myanmar are protected and wants to prevent a collapse of a central authority that could threaten its investments. The Diplomat said these concerns had been the focus of recent high-level talks between China and the junta, and had seemingly motivated Beijing’s recent turn towards greater intervention in the conflict. It added that Beijing had been pushing Myanmar’s military to permit the establishment of a joint security company, which would allow Chinese private security companies to be deployed to protect Chinese investments in the country.
The desire of key rebel groups to seek dialogue with the national army in response to diplomatic pressure from China is undermining the power of the country’s parallel National Unity Government (NUG), which refuses to engage in dialogue with the military government. The NUG comprises of lawmakers from the civilian government once led by Aung San Suu Kyi, who was ousted in the military takeover of 2021. The US and Europe support the NUG as Myanmar’s shadow government, although the US does not officially recognise it. Most of its senior officials live abroad.
The fear is that as the influence of rebel groups representing particular ethnic groups rises and that of the NUG wanes, the outlook for a unified Myanmar post-conflict also deteriorates. The country could fragment as a result, and subside into chaos and potentially another civil war.
Meanwhile, the military is reported to be forcibly recruiting young men in preparation for what could prove to be a make-or-break offensive in 2025.
The collapse of the Assad government in Syria has also prompted speculation that the military regime could disintegrate in 2025. The military is struggling with high numbers of defections as morale collapses amid battlefield losses and a lack of pay, food and other basic items.
Economic Risk – Negative at 3
According to the World Bank’s Myanmar Economic Monitor, published in December 2024, the economy is expected to contract by 1% in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a downward revision from the previous projection of modest growth. That reflects the impact of natural disasters, ongoing conflict and widespread shortages of basic commodities.
The agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors are projected to contract, with production constrained by ongoing shortages of raw materials, inadequate electricity supply, and weakness in domestic demand. Over half of Myanmar’s townships are experiencing active conflict, which continues to disrupt supply chains and border trade, according to the Monitor.
In addition, Typhoon Yagi, which swept across Myanmar in September, and heavy monsoon rains have caused severe flooding across the country, affecting 2.4 million people. Floods damaged infrastructure and disrupted production, with over a third of all firms and more than half of agricultural firms reporting adverse impacts. Food insecurity has increased because of these shocks, with food prices continuing to increase rapidly, says the Monitor.
Commercial Risk – Negative at 3
Commercial risk has increased significantly since the coup, amid a deterioration in the ability of government ministries and the banking and legal systems to function effectively.
According to Fulcrum, which is published by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, the Ministry of Commerce has introduced a process for cross-border barter trade transactions with India, Thailand and China as the junta seeks to de-dollarize its cross-border trade.
Thailand has announced plans for a task force to help Thai banks vet business with Myanmar’s military regime for possible arms deals. The move followed a report by the United Nations’ special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Tom Andrews, saying that Thai banks had taken a leading role in financing arms purchases for the military regime.
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) – Negative at 3
The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are recognized as a beneficial framework for responsible investment. The Sustainable Development Report from Cambridge University Press assesses the progress of all 193 UN Member States on the SDGs. It provides a useful means of ranking Southeast Asian countries on their ESG progress.
Myanmar is ranked 120 out of 166 in the 2024 report, with a score of 62.8.
Environment – Myanmar is one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, according to Georgetown University in Washington DC. A report in the university’s Journal of International Affairs, published in June 2024, says the country faces a high risk of climate hazards, including floods, cyclones, extreme heat and landslides.
Myanmar’s vulnerable coasts are particularly exposed, threatening more than 5 million people in low-lying and coastal regions, adds the publication. Furthermore, Myanmar’s predominantly rural population, relying on the climate-vulnerable agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors for their livelihoods, are ill-prepared for an increasingly worsening climate. Practices such as illegal logging have worsened the risk of landslides during flooding, which occurs annually during the rainy season.
Social – According to the IndustriALL Global Union, which represents 50 million workers in 140 countries in the mining, energy and manufacturing sectors, the situation for workers continues to deteriorate. It says:
“Unions have been outlawed and with no mechanism to help workers and no freedom of association, workers are in a very vulnerable situation. Violations against workers are increasing, as is wage exploitation, forced labour and harassment against women. The military has cracked down on unions and its members, with violent attacks and arrests.”
Governance – This is another area where Myanmar scores very poorly, reflecting high levels of corruption and the lack of rule of law. The IFC – a sister organization to the World Bank – reported in 2018 that the current level of governance standards in most firms in Myanmar was very low. It added that governance structures at Myanmar firms remained largely underdeveloped, with poorly functioning boards, antiquated management control processes, and low levels of transparency. Governance levels are likely to have deteriorated even further since then.
March Bulletin
Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) – Negative at 3
A report from the International Labor Organization, published in November 2024, found severe and worsening violations of workers’ rights, including freedom of association, forced labour, and child labour.
Latest economic data
f – forecasts
Source: World Bank/Asian Development Bank, Worldbox Business Intelligence
Useful links
https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/myanmar/publication/myanmar-economic-monitor-reports
https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2021
https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/MMR
https://www.adb.org/countries/myanmar/main
About Worldbox Business Intelligence
Worldbox Business Intelligence, headquartered in Switzerland, is a Global API data solution provider of business intelligence and used in data analytics.
With the Global API solution Worldbox Business Intelligence enables clients and partners a frictionless real time onboarding, KYC and compliance verification, while rapid global investigations are provided, if needed.
Worldbox Business Intelligence provides global data in a standardised structure on more than 300 Million companies worldwide. It’s global network of subsidiaries, branches and desks allows the precise and efficient collection of data on key target territories for clients and partners.”
“Worldbox Business Intelligence – Bringing Swiss Precision To Data”
 |
 |
 |
 |
Copyright (C) 2025 Worldbox Business Intelligence. All rights reserved.
Our mailing address is:
Worldbox Business Intelligence
Breitackerstrasse 1
Zollikon
Zurich 8702
Switzerland
