• Ghana – Further monetary tightening will not put a firm floor under the tumbling cedi;
  • Korea (South) – Stable interest rates and stimulatory measures to come;
  • Nicaragua – A canal to rival Panama’s?
  • Uganda – reasons for the shilling’s fall to 16-month lows.

ARGENTINA:  The government’s battle with foreign holdout creditors is entering its end-game, and it is still not certain whether the Kirchner administration will settle or risk a formal default. These have, essentially, become the only two options left, and there are some indications that the government will seek a way to settle.

BRAZIL:  It is difficult to predict whether the Brazilian soccer team’s humiliation by the Germans in the semi-finals will have repercussions reaching to next October’s presidential elections, but there will be renewed anger at the cost of the World Cup and the economy is not doing well these days.

CHILE:  The CB will likely cut interest rates soon, persuaded by economic growth well below analysts’ expectations and inflation that is also rising more slowly than anticipated. While the politicians have agreed on a two-tiered corporate tax reform, the overall package, once completed, is still likely to add a further damper on investment.

EGYPT:  The new government has moved promptly, at least in part due to pressures from abroad, to initiate reforms seeking to fix the ailing economy. International investors are still hesitant, but the jump in debt yields that followed higher energy prices is likely to fade.

Risk iStock_000016809464SmallHAITI:  This troubled country has made noteworthy economic progress since it was struck by a devastating earthquake in 2010. Much of the promised foreign aid has been slow in arriving, however, much has been wasted, and private investment from abroad has been a mere trickle. This is in large part due to the local political situation.

KOREA (SOUTH):  Official unease over the exchange market strength of the won has been growing. Since it is based on fundamental as well as temporary factors it is not likely to fade by itself. Chances are, the CB would step in if the currency threatened to cross the psychologically important 1,000 per USD 1.00 mark.

LIECHTENSTEIN:  The principality has made a big transition from “uncooperative tax haven” to “tax compliance center” in the realization that the tide of time does not favor trying to stand up to the efforts of cash-strapped governments seeking to deal with evasion. Its future, nonetheless, remains bright.

MYANMAR:  Much of the optimism raised by the end of military rule and a rash of economic reforms has dissipated. The country remains well-placed to build on the economic progress made to date and enjoy an extended period of good growth, but first it will have to get past elections that could exacerbate existing tensions.

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