Experian launches new Ascend Portfolio Loss Forecaster™ in collaboration with Oliver Wyman to help analyze risk and forecast loan losses in the wake of COVID-19 and beyond

Forecaster tool helps lenders make better decisions with customized forecasts and macroeconomic data

Experian®, the world’s leading global information services company, in collaboration with Oliver Wyman, a leading global management consulting firm, today launched the Ascend Portfolio Loss Forecaster™, a new tool that uses Experian’s comprehensive data along with up-to-date macroeconomic forecasts to analyze risk accurately across consumer loan portfolios. Built on the Experian Ascend Technology Platform™, the new product delivers immediate access to a combined set of industry-leading data and models powered by machine learning to analyze the impact of today’s rapidly changing macroeconomic conditions.

After the longest period of economic growth in post-war U.S. history, the unprecedented and sudden changes in economic conditions due to COVID-19 require lenders to gain instant insights to assess impact and losses to their portfolios. The new Ascend Portfolio Loss Forecaster combines the power of Experian data with industry-leading loss forecasting models from Oliver Wyman and leverages macroeconomic forecasts from Oxford Economics. Lenders can calculate multiple scenarios, including a set of COVID-19-specific macro-forecasts, to validate and improve the accuracy of their portfolio predictions.

“Experian’s agility and innovative technologies allow us to help lenders make informed decisions in real time to mitigate future risk,” said Greg Wright, chief product officer of Experian’s Consumer Information Services. “We’re proud to work with our partners, Oxford Economics and Oliver Wyman, to bring lenders a product powered by machine learning, comprehensive data and macroeconomic forecast scenarios.”

“It is important that the banks take into account the evolving credit behaviors due to the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to the robust modeling technique for their loss forecasting and strategic decisioning,” said Anshul Verma, senior director of products at Oliver Wyman. “With the Ascend Portfolio Loss Forecaster, lenders get robust models that work in the current conditions and take into account evolving consumer behaviors.”

The Ascend Portfolio Loss Forecaster is a turnkey solution that includes credit and collateral data including Experian loan-level data: VantageScore®, bankruptcy scores and customer-level attributes. It incorporates loan level forecasting models built by Oliver Wyman using Experian’s historical data, encompassing over 5,000 consumer credit attributes. The product features built-in custom macro-forecasts from Oxford Economics, including a COVID-19-specific macro-forecast. Based on a hazard rate methodology that’s well suited for high levels of uncertainty, Experian’s tool can help lenders be more responsive to changing macroeconomic conditions.

For more information on Experian’s Ascend Portfolio Loss Forecaster, please visit https://www.experian.com/business-services/portfolio-loss-forecaster.

Source:  Experian Press Release